Church Contribution System 4.03 serial key or number

Uredba (EU) br. 549/2013 Europskog parlamenta i Vijeća od 21. svibnja 2013. o Europskom sustavu nacionalnih i regionalnih računa u Europskoj uniji Tekst značajan za EGP

Regulation (EU) No 549/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2013 on the European system of national and regional accounts in the European Union Text with EEA relevance

Uredba (EU) br. 549/2013 Europskog parlamenta i Vijeća od 21. svibnja 2013. o Europskom sustavu nacionalnih i regionalnih računa u Europskoj uniji Tekst značajan za EGP

SL L 174, 26.6.2013., str. 1–727 (BG, ES, CS, DA, DE, ET, EL, EN, FR, GA, IT, LV, LT, HU, MT, NL, PL, PT, RO, SK, SL, FI, SV)
Posebno izdanje na hrvatskom jeziku: Poglavlje 10 Svezak 008 Str. 3 - 729

Na snazi: Ovaj je akt izmijenjen. Trenutačni pročišćeni tekst: 24/08/2015

ELI: http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/2013/549/oj

UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549

FORM 10-K

For the fiscal year ended April 3, 2015

For the transition period from to

Commission File No.: 1-4850

	COMPUTER SCIENCES CORPORATION
	(Exact name of Registrant as specified in its charter)

Indicate by check mark if the registrant is a well-known seasoned issuer, as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act.     o Yes  x No  

Indicate by check mark if the registrant is not required to file reports pursuant to Section 13 or Section 15(d) of the Act.      o Yes  x   No  

Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days.  x Yes  o No  

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant has submitted electronically and posted on its corporate website, if any, every Interactive Data File required to be submitted and posted pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to submit and post such files). x Yes  o No     

Indicate by check mark if disclosure of delinquent filers pursuant to Item 405 of Regulation S-K is not contained herein, and will not be contained, to the best of Registrant’s knowledge, in definitive proxy or information statements incorporated by reference in Part III of this Form 10-K or any amendment to this Form 10-K.   o

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act).    o Yes  x   No

As of October 3, 2014, the aggregate market value of stock held by non-affiliates of the Registrant was approximately $8,261,393,187.

There were 137,679,779 shares of the Registrant’s common stock outstanding as of May 15, 2015.

DOCUMENTS INCORPORATED BY REFERENCE

Portions of the Registrant’s definitive Proxy Statement for its 2015 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, which will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission within 120 days after April 3, 2015, are incorporated by reference into Part III hereof.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PART I

INTRODUCTION AND HISTORY

General

Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC or the Company), incorporated in the state of Nevada, is a global provider of information technology (IT) and professional services and solutions. Since the Company was founded in 1959, CSC has helped its clients develop and integrate their IT assets in support of operational efficiency, new growth initiatives and other business objectives. CSC's clients include commercial enterprises and the U.S. federal government, as well as state, local and non-U.S. government agencies. The Company has 70,000 employees in more than 60 countries.

The Company's mission is to enable superior returns on our clients' technology investments through best-in-class industry solutions, domain expertise and global scale. CSC generally does not operate through exclusive agreements with hardware or software providers and believes this independence enables the Company to better identify and manage solutions specifically tailored to each client’s needs.

The Company’s strategy is to become a leader in next-generation IT services which include applications modernization, cloud infrastructure, cyber security, big data and mobility. Current and prospective clients are changing how they buy and consume IT services. Clients are looking for greater operational agility from their IT services and they are looking to benefit from the insights provided by mobility, social media, and big data analytics. At the same time, they continue to seek significant cost reductions by migrating from traditional IT infrastructure to the cloud.

This change in client preferences is creating a market opportunity for CSC. The Company is responding by assembling key assets and forming strategic partnerships with technology leaders. CSC has built a highly secure, flexible, private cloud infrastructure offering, BizCloud, for our enterprise as well as our government clients.

CSC also entered into a global alliance with AT&T to merge the Company’s cloud infrastructure, specialized consulting and applications expertise with AT&T’s highly-secure network and cloud infrastructure platform to help global businesses move more quickly to the cloud. This alliance helps to reduce capital intensity and creates the global scale necessary to run modernized application workloads. CSC acquired one of the leading providers of enterprise cloud management software, ServiceMesh, to facilitate the orchestration of enterprise applications across multi-vendor hybrid clouds including, Amazon Web Services, VMware and Microsoft. Additionally, ServiceMesh provides our clients with the advanced capabilities such as tiered services levels, different levels of security, self-service options, governance, policy and real time monitoring. CSC is also creating a Cloud Center of Excellence using services from Amazon, to accelerate the development of cloud solutions for enterprise and public sector customers.

CSC’s strategic partnership with HCL Technologies aims to create a world-class applications modernization delivery network. The Company expects to offer our commercial customers a global footprint of delivery capabilities for modernizing their legacy applications and moving them to the cloud. HCL and CSC will also jointly create a Banking Center of Excellence to accelerate and expand our core banking and card services solutions by leveraging our global banking expertise which includes CSC’s Hogan and Celeriti offerings.

CSC's service contracts are of various duration, scope and terms and conditions. CSC's contracts typically contain provisions by which customers may terminate the contract prior to completion, though such instances are infrequent due to the differentiated services provided, complex transition of personnel, assets, methodologies and processes involved. If a contract is terminated early for convenience, the Company seeks to recover tangible assets, investments and other intangible assets through stated contract terms or negotiation. If a contract is terminated early due to CSC's default, the Company may have additional liability and also its ability to compete for future business could be adversely impacted. The U.S. federal government may terminate almost all of CSC's government contracts and subcontracts either at its convenience or for default based on factors set forth in the Federal Acquisition Regulation. Upon termination for convenience of a fixed-price type contract, our U.S. federal government contracts normally entitle us to receive the purchase price for delivered items, reimbursement for contractual commitments and allowable costs for work-in-process, and a reasonable allowance for profit, although there can also be financial impact resulting from the negotiated contract

settlement. Upon termination for convenience of a U.S. federal government cost reimbursable or time and material contract, we normally are entitled to reimbursement of allowable costs plus a fee. Allowable costs generally include the cost to terminate agreements with suppliers and subcontractors. The amount of the fee recovered, if any, generally is related to the portion of the work completed prior to termination and is determined by negotiation. See Risk Factor number 17 under Item 1A "Risk Factors" in this Annual Report for further discussion.

On May 19, 2015, CSC's board of directors unanimously approved the announcement of a plan to separate (the Separation) CSC’s North American Public Sector business into an independent publicly traded company (CSC - U.S. Public Sector) the shares of which would be spun off in a distribution to holders of CSC shares on the record date. After the Separation, CSC would focus on serving commercial clients globally and public sector clients outside the United States. The Separation is intended to be tax free for federal income tax purposes. CSC also announced an intention to pay a special dividend of approximately $1.5 billion (or $10.50 per share) in cash concurrent with the Separation. It is currently expected that CSC - U.S. Public Sector will consist of substantially all the assets and operations currently comprising CSC's North American Public Sector reportable segment, and shortly prior to the Separation will incur approximately $1.5 billion in principal amount of debt as well as approximately $150 million in principal amount of pre-existing capital lease obligations outstanding. In addition, at the time of the Separation CSC - U.S. Public Sector is expected to have approximately $300 million in cash, and to assume substantially all CSC’s U.S. defined benefit plan obligations, together with receiving associated assets. Any assets and liabilities not transferred to CSC - U.S. Public Sector, including the Company's GBS and GIS reportable segments, will remain with CSC after the Separation.

Completion of the Separation will not require a shareholder vote but will be subject to customary conditions, including final approval of our board of directors, the receipt of a favorable legal opinion from counsel with respect to the tax-free nature of the Separation, and the effectiveness of a Form 10 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. See “Risks Relating to the Proposed Separation” under Item 1A “Risk Factors” in this Annual Report for further discussion.

Services and Sectors

The Company's reportable segments are Global Business Services (GBS), Global Infrastructure Services (GIS), and North American Public Sector (NPS). Geographically, CSC has significant operations throughout North America, Europe, Asia and Australia. Segment and geographic information are included in Note 20 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for the year ended April 3, 2015. For a discussion of risks associated with our foreign operations, see Risk Factor number 14 under Item 1A "Risk Factors".

GBS

GBS provides innovative technology solutions including consulting, applications services, and software, which address key business challenges within the customer’s industry. GBS strives to help clients understand and exploit industry trends of IT modernization and virtualization of the IT portfolio (hardware, software, networking, storage and computing assets). GBS has three primary growth engines: end-to-end applications services; consulting services; and industry aligned next-generation software and solutions. Applications Services optimize and modernize clients' business and technical environments, enabling clients to capitalize on emerging services such as cloud, mobility, and big data within new commercial models such as the "as a Service" and digital economies. The consulting business helps organizations innovate, transform, and create sustainable competitive advantage through a combination of industry, business process, technology, systems integration and change management expertise. The industry software & solutions unit’s vertically-aligned software solutions and process-based intellectual property power mission-critical transaction engines in insurance, banking, healthcare and life sciences, manufacturing and a host of diversified industries. Key competitive differentiators for GBS include its global scale, solution objectivity, depth of industry expertise, strong partnerships, vendor and product independence and end-to-end solutions and capabilities. Changing business issues such as globalization, fast-developing economies, government regulation, and growing concerns around risk, security, and compliance drive demand for these GBS offerings.

GIS

GIS provides managed and virtual desktop solutions, unified communications and collaboration services, data center management, cyber security, compute and managed storage solutions to commercial clients globally. GIS also delivers CSC's next-generation Cloud offerings, including Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), private Cloud solutions, CloudMail and Storage as a Service (SaaS). GIS provides a portfolio of standard offerings that have predictable outcomes and

measurable results while reducing business risk and operational costs for clients. To provide clients with differentiated offerings, GIS maintains a select number of key alliance partners to make investments in developing unique offerings and go-to market strategies. This collaboration helps CSC determine the best technology, road map and opportunities to differentiate solutions, expand market reach, augment capabilities, and jointly deliver impactful solutions. GIS seeks to capitalize on the emerging market trend and rebundled IT portfolio on virtualized infrastructure.

NPS

NPS delivers IT, mission, and operations-related services to the Department of Defense, civil agencies of the U.S. federal government, as well as state and local government agencies. Commensurate with the Company's strategy, NPS is leveraging our commercial best practices and next-generation technologies to bring scalable and more cost-effective IT solutions to government agencies that are seeking efficiency through innovation. This approach is designed to yield lower implementation and operational costs as well as a higher standard of delivery excellence. Demand for NPS offerings are driven by evolving government priorities such as: 1) migration to next-generation IT solutions, which include hybrid cloud infrastructure, application modernization and orchestration, 2) mission intelligence driven by big data solutions, 3) health IT and informatics, and 4) cyber security.

During the last three fiscal years, the Company’s revenue mix by line of business was as follows:

Fiscal 2015 Overview

Total revenue of $12,173 million decreased by 6.3% year over year, reflecting certain headwinds in its commercial infrastructure outsourcing business and the repositioning of its consulting business, impact of restructured contracts, and price-downs.

Overall market demand for IT services was in transition in fiscal 2015 as organizations sought to use technology to improve enterprise efficiency, agility and productivity. The Company expanded its sales force and invested in sales tools, next-generation offerings, internal systems and workforce optimization during fiscal 2015. During fiscal 2015, GBS contract awards were $4.7 billion as compared to $6.1 billion in the prior year. Total contract value (TCV) within GIS remained flat at $4.1 billion for both fiscal 2015 and 2014. During fiscal 2015, NPS had contract awards of $2.9 billion, a decline when compared with fiscal 2014 awards of $4.3 billion, primarily due to the signing of one large recompete contract during the second quarter of 2014. The Company is participating in the general industry trend of smaller contract awards of $100 million or less, and a decline in the number and total value of large contract awards valued at more than $100 million.

Acquisitions and Divestitures

Acquisitions

During the fourth quarter of fiscal 2015, CSC acquired Autonomic Resources, LLC (Autonomic), a North Carolina-based cloud-computing infrastructure provider, for cash consideration of $14 million. The acquisition enhances CSC's ability to provide cloud services under the Federal Risk and Authorization Management Program (FedRAMP) to federal, state and local governments. Autonomic will be integrated into the NPS segment.

During the second quarter of fiscal 2015, CSC acquired a privately held entity for $35 million in an all-cash transaction. CSC acquired this entity primarily to enhance its cyber security, systems engineering, and software development service offerings in the federal intelligence sector. This entity is now a component of the Company's NPS segment.

During fiscal 2014, CSC acquired ServiceMesh Inc., a privately-held enterprise cloud services management company, headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with operations in the United States, Australia and the United Kingdom, for a

total purchase consideration of $282 million. The acquisition enhances CSC's ability to help its clients migrate their applications into Cloud computing environments and to automate the deployment and management of enterprise applications and platforms across private, public and hybrid cloud environments. ServiceMesh is now a component of the Company's GIS segment.

Additionally, during fiscal 2014, CSC acquired Infochimps, Inc., a privately-held company, in an all-cash transaction for $27 million. The acquisition complements CSC’s existing Big Data business by providing a flexible, scalable, platform-as-a-service offering, and is associated to the Company's GBS segment.

During fiscal 2013, CSC acquired 42Six Solutions, LLC (42Six) for $35 million in an all cash transaction. 42Six, a software development company specializing in providing analytics and applications software products and services for the U.S. government intelligence community and the Department of Defense, was acquired primarily to enhance CSC's Big Data offerings. This acquisition is related to the Company's NPS segment.

Divestitures

During fiscal 2015, 2014 and 2013, the Company divested certain non-core businesses as a part of its service portfolio optimization initiative to focus on the next-generation technology services. Certain of the divestitures met the criteria of discontinued operations presentation, and consequently, their historical results have been presented as discontinued operations in the Company's Consolidated Statement of Operations.

On July 31, 2014, CSC completed the sale of a German software business to a strategic investor for cash consideration of $3 million. This divestiture, which had been included in the GBS segment's healthcare group, resulted in a pre-tax loss of $22 million, representing the excess of the carrying value of the net assets of the business and transaction costs over the net proceeds. On July 19, 2013, CSC completed the sale of its base operations, aviation and ranges services business unit, Applied Technology Division (ATD) within its NPS Segment, to a strategic investor for cash consideration of $178 million plus a net working capital adjustment receivable of $6 million. The pre-tax gain on disposal was $77 million, representing the excess of the sale price over the carrying value of the net assets of the divested business, less transaction costs of $5 million. On May 21, 2013, CSC completed the divestiture of its flood insurance-related business process outsourcing practice (flood insurance BPO), within CSC's GBS segment, to a financial investor for cash consideration of $43 million plus a net working capital adjustment of $4 million. The pre-tax gain on disposal was $25 million, representing the excess of the net proceeds over the carrying value of the net assets of the divested business and the related transaction costs.

During the third quarter of fiscal 2013, CSC completed the divestiture of its U.S.-based credit services business for cash proceeds of $1 billion, and its Italian consulting and system integration business for a cash payment of $35 million. During the fourth quarter of fiscal 2013, CSC completed the divestiture of one of its enterprise systems integration businesses based in Singapore and Malaysia for consideration of approximately $103 million

This chapter builds on findings of AR5 and assesses new scientific evidence of changes in the climate system and the associated impacts on natural and human systems, with a specific focus on the magnitude and pattern of risks linked for global warming of 1.5°C above temperatures in the pre-industrial period. Chapter 3 explores observed impacts and projected risks to a range of natural and human systems, with a focus on how risk levels change from 1.5°C to 2°C of global warming. The chapter also revisits major categories of risk (Reasons for Concern, RFC) based on the assessment of new knowledge that has become available since AR5.

 1.5°C and 2°C Warmer Worlds

The global climate has changed relative to the pre-industrial period, and there are multiple lines of evidence that these changes have had impacts on organisms and ecosystems, as well as on human systems and well-being (high confidence). The increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST), which reached 0.87°C in 2006–2015 relative to 1850–1900, has increased the frequency and magnitude of impacts (high confidence), strengthening evidence of how an increase in GMST of 1.5°C or more could impact natural and human systems (1.5°C versus 2°C). {3.3, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6, Cross-Chapter Boxes 6, 7 and 8 in this chapter}

Human-induced global warming has already caused multiple observed changes in the climate system (high confidence). Changes include increases in both land and ocean temperatures, as well as more frequent heatwaves in most land regions (high confidence). There is also (high confidence) global warming has resulted in an increase in the frequency and duration of marine heatwaves. Further, there is substantial evidence that human-induced global warming has led to an increase in the frequency, intensity and/or amount of heavy precipitation events at the global scale (medium confidence), as well as an increased risk of drought in the Mediterranean region (medium confidence). {3.3.1, 3.3.2, 3.3.3, 3.3.4, Box 3.4}

Trends in intensity and frequency of some climate and weather extremes have been detected over time spans during which about 0.5°C of global warming occurred (medium confidence). This assessment is based on several lines of evidence, including attribution studies for changes in extremes since 1950. {3.2, 3.3.1, 3.3.2, 3.3.3, 3.3.4}

Several regional changes in climate are assessed to occur with global warming up to 1.5°C as compared to pre-industrial levels, including warming of extreme temperatures in many regions (high confidence), increases in frequency, intensity and/or amount of heavy precipitation in several regions (high confidence), and an increase in intensity or frequency of droughts in some regions (medium confidence). {3.3.1, 3.3.2, 3.3.3, 3.3.4, Table 3.2}

There is no single ‘1.5°C warmer world’ (high confidence). In addition to the overall increase in GMST, it is important to consider the size and duration of potential overshoots in temperature. Furthermore, there are questions on how the stabilization of an increase in GMST of 1.5°C can be achieved, and how policies might be able to influence the resilience of human and natural systems, and the nature of regional and subregional risks. Overshooting poses large risks for natural and human systems, especially if the temperature at peak warming is high, because some risks may be long-lasting and irreversible, such as the loss of some ecosystems (high confidence). The rate of change for several types of risks may also have relevance, with potentially large risks in the case of a rapid rise to overshooting temperatures, even if a decrease to 1.5°C can be achieved at the end of the 21st century or later (medium confidence). If overshoot is to be minimized, the remaining equivalent CO₂ budget available for emissions is very small, which implies that large, immediate and unprecedented global efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases are required (high confidence). {3.2, 3.6.2, Cross-Chapter Box 8 in this chapter}

Robust¹global differences in temperature means and extremes are expected if global warming reaches 1.5°C versus 2°C above the pre-industrial levels (high confidence). For oceans, regional surface temperature means and extremes are projected to be higher at 2°C compared to 1.5°C of global warming (high confidence). Temperature means and extremes are also projected to be higher at 2°C compared to 1.5°C in most land regions, with increases being 2–3 times greater than the increase in GMST projected for some regions (high confidence). Robust increases in temperature means and extremes are also projected at 1.5°C compared to present-day values (high confidence) {3.3.1, 3.3.2}. There are decreases in the occurrence of cold extremes, but substantial increases in their temperature, in particular in regions with snow or ice cover (high confidence) {3.3.1}.

Climate models project robust² differences in regional climate between present-day and global warming up to 1.5°C³, and between 1.5°C and 2°C⁴ (high confidence), depending on the variable and region in question (high confidence). Large, robust and widespread differences are expected for temperature extremes (high confidence). Regarding hot extremes, the strongest warming is expected to occur at mid-latitudes in the warm season (with increases of up to 3°C for 1.5°C of global warming, i.e., a factor of two) and at high latitudes in the cold season (with increases of up to 4.5°C at 1.5°C of global warming, i.e., a factor of three) (high confidence). The strongest warming of hot extremes is projected to occur in central and eastern North America, central and southern Europe, the Mediterranean region (including southern Europe, northern Africa and the Near East), western and central Asia, and southern Africa (medium confidence). The number of exceptionally hot days are expected to increase the most in the tropics, where interannual temperature variability is lowest; extreme heatwaves are thus projected to emerge earliest in these regions, and they are expected to already become widespread there at 1.5°C global warming (high confidence). Limiting global warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C could result in around 420 million fewer people being frequently exposed to extreme heatwaves, and about 65 million fewer people being exposed to exceptional heatwaves, assuming constant vulnerability (medium confidence). {3.3.1, 3.3.2, Cross-Chapter Box 8 in this chapter}

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C would limit risks of increases in heavy precipitation events on a global scale and in several regions compared to conditions at 2°C global warming (medium confidence). The regions with the largest increases in heavy precipitation events for 1.5°C to 2°C global warming include: several high-latitude regions (e.g. Alaska/western Canada, eastern Canada/ Greenland/Iceland, northern Europe and northern Asia); mountainous regions (e.g.,Tibetan Plateau); eastern Asia (including China and Japan); and eastern North America (medium confidence). Tropical cyclones are projected to decrease in frequency but with an increase in the number of very intense cyclones (limited evidence, low confidence). Heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones is projected to be higher at 2°C compared to 1.5°C of global warming (medium confidence). Heavy precipitation, when aggregated at a global scale, is projected to be higher at 2°C than at 1.5°C of global warming (medium confidence) {3.3.3, 3.3.6}

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C is expected to substantially reduce the probability of extreme drought, precipitation deficits, and risks associated with water availability (i.e., water stress) in some regions (medium confidence). In particular, risks associated with increases in drought frequency and magnitude are projected to be substantially larger at 2°C than at 1.5°C in the Mediterranean region (including southern Europe, northern Africa and the Near East) and southern Africa (medium confidence). {3.3.3, 3.3.4, Box 3.1, Box 3.2}

Risks to natural and human systems are expected to be lower at 1.5°C than at 2°C of global warming (high confidence). This difference is due to the smaller rates and magnitudes of climate change associated with a 1.5°C temperature increase, including lower frequencies and intensities of temperature-related extremes. Lower rates of change enhance the ability of natural and human systems to adapt, with substantial benefits for a wide range of terrestrial, freshwater, wetland, coastal and ocean ecosystems (including coral reefs) (high confidence), as well as food production systems, human health, and tourism (medium confidence), together with energy systems and transportation (low confidence). {3.3.1, 3.4}

Exposure to multiple and compound climate-related risks is projected to increase between 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming with greater proportions of people both exposed and susceptible to poverty in Africa and Asia (high confidence). For global warming from 1.5°C to 2°C, risks across energy, food, and water sectors could overlap spatially and temporally, creating new – and exacerbating current – hazards, exposures, and vulnerabilities that could affect increasing numbers of people and regions (medium confidence). Small island states and economically disadvantaged populations are particularly at risk (high confidence). {3.3.1, 3.4.5.3, 3.4.5.6, 3.4.11, 3.5.4.9, Box 3.5}

Global warming of 2°C would lead to an expansion of areas with significant increases in runoff, as well as those affected by flood hazard, compared to conditions at 1.5°C (medium confidence). Global warming of 1.5°C would also lead to an expansion of the global land area with significant increases in runoff (medium confidence) and an increase in flood hazard in some regions (medium confidence) compared to present-day conditions. {3.3.5}

The probability of a sea-ice-free Arctic Ocean⁵ during summer is substantially higher at 2°C compared to 1.5°C of global warming (medium confidence). Model simulations suggest that at least one sea-ice-free Arctic summer is expected every 10 years for global warming of 2°C, with the frequency decreasing to one sea-ice-free Arctic summer every 100 years under 1.5°C (medium confidence). An intermediate temperature overshoot will have no long- term consequences for Arctic sea ice coverage, and hysteresis is not expected (high confidence). {3.3.8, 3.4.4.7}

Global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) is projected to be around 0.1 m (0.04 – 0.16 m) less by the end of the 21st century in a 1.5°C warmer world compared to a 2°C warmer world (medium confidence). Projected GMSLR for 1.5°C of global warming has an indicative range of 0.26 – 0.77m, relative to 1986–2005, (medium confidence). A smaller sea level rise could mean that up to 10.4 million fewer people (based on the 2010 global population and assuming no adaptation) would be exposed to the impacts of sea level rise globally in 2100 at 1.5°C compared to at 2°C. A slower rate of sea level rise enables greater opportunities for adaptation (medium confidence). There is high confidence that sea level rise will continue beyond 2100. Instabilities exist for both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, which could result in multi-meter rises in sea level on time scales of century to millennia. There is (medium confidence) that these instabilities could be triggered at around 1.5°C to 2°C of global warming. {3.3.9, 3.4.5, 3.6.3}

The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide, resulting in ocean acidification and changes to carbonate chemistry that are unprecedented for at least the last 65 million years (high confidence). Risks have been identified for the survival, calcification, growth, development and abundance of a broad range of marine taxonomic groups, ranging from algae to fish, with substantial evidence of predictable trait-based sensitivities (high confidence). There are multiple lines of evidence that ocean warming and acidification corresponding to 1.5°C of global warming would impact a wide range of marine organisms and ecosystems, as well as sectors such as aquaculture and fisheries (high confidence). {3.3.10, 3.4.4}

Larger risks are expected for many regions and systems for global warming at 1.5°C, as compared to today, with adaptation required now and up to 1.5°C. However, risks would be larger at 2°C of warming and an even greater effort would be needed for adaptation to a temperature increase of that magnitude (high confidence). {3.4, Box 3.4, Box 3.5, Cross-Chapter Box 6 in this chapter}

Future risks at 1.5°C of global warming will depend on the mitigation pathway and on the possible occurrence of a transient overshoot (high confidence). The impacts on natural and human systems would be greater if mitigation pathways temporarily overshoot 1.5°C and return to 1.5°C later in the century, as compared to pathways that stabilize at 1.5°C without an overshoot (high confidence). The size and duration of an overshoot would also affect future impacts (e.g., irreversible loss of some ecosystems) (high confidence). Changes in land use resulting from mitigation choices could have impacts on food production and ecosystem diversity. {3.6.1, 3.6.2, Cross-Chapter Boxes 7 and 8 in this chapter}

Climate Change Risks for Natural and Human systems

Terrestrial and Wetland Ecosystems

Risks of local species losses and, consequently, risks of extinction are much less in a 1.5°C versus a 2°C warmer world (high confidence). The number of species projected to lose over half of their climatically determined geographic range at 2°C global warming (18% of insects, 16% of plants, 8% of vertebrates) is projected to be reduced to 6% of insects, 8% of plants and 4% of vertebrates at 1.5°C warming (medium confidence). Risks associated with other biodiversity-related factors, such as forest fires, extreme weather events, and the spread of invasive species, pests and diseases, would also be lower at 1.5°C than at 2°C of warming (high confidence), supporting a greater persistence of ecosystem services.
{3.4.3, 3.5.2}

Constraining global warming to 1.5°C, rather than to 2°C and higher, is projected to have many benefits for terrestrial and wetland ecosystems and for the preservation of their services to humans (high confidence). Risks for natural and managed ecosystems are higher on drylands compared to humid lands. The global terrestrial land area projected to be affected by ecosystem transformations (13%, interquartile range 8–20%) at 2°C is approximately halved at 1.5°C global warming to 4% (interquartile range 2–7%) (medium confidence). Above 1.5°C, an expansion of desert terrain and vegetation would occur in the Mediterranean biome (medium confidence), causing changes unparalleled in the last 10,000 years (medium confidence). {3.3.2.2, 3.4.3.2, 3.4.3.5, 3.4.6.1, 3.5.5.10, Box 4.2}

Many impacts are projected to be larger at higher latitudes, owing to mean and cold-season warming rates above the global average (medium confidence). High-latitude tundra and boreal forest are particularly at risk, and woody shrubs are already encroaching into tundra (high confidence) and will proceed with further warming. Constraining warming to 1.5°C would prevent the thawing of an estimated permafrost area of 1.5 to 2.5 million km² over centuries compared to thawing under 2°C (medium confidence). {3.3.2, 3.4.3, 3.4.4}

Ocean Ecosystems

Ocean ecosystems are already experiencing large-scale changes, and critical thresholds are expected to be reached at 1.5°C and higher levels of global warming (high confidence). In the transition to 1.5°C of warming, changes to water temperatures are expected to drive some species (e.g., plankton, fish) to relocate to higher latitudes and cause novel ecosystems to assemble (high confidence). Other ecosystems (e.g., kelp forests, coral reefs) are relatively less able to move, however, and are projected to experience high rates of mortality and loss (very high confidence). For example, multiple lines of evidence indicate that the majority (70–90%) of warm water (tropical) coral reefs that exist today will disappear even if global warming is constrained to 1.5°C (very high confidence). {3.4.4, Box 3.4}

Current ecosystem services from the ocean are expected to be reduced at 1.5°C of global warming, with losses being even greater at 2°C of global warming (high confidence). The risks of declining ocean productivity, shifts of species to higher latitudes, damage to ecosystems (e.g., coral reefs, and mangroves, seagrass and other wetland ecosystems), loss of fisheries productivity (at low latitudes), and changes to ocean chemistry (e.g., acidification, hypoxia and dead zones) are projected to be substantially lower when global warming is limited to 1.5°C (high confidence). {3.4.4, Box 3.4}

Water Resources

The projected frequency and magnitude of floods and droughts in some regions are smaller under 1.5°C than under 2°C of warming (medium confidence). Human exposure to increased flooding is projected to be substantially lower at 1.5°C compared to 2°C of global warming, although projected changes create regionally differentiated risks (medium confidence). The differences in the risks among regions are strongly influenced by local socio-economic conditions (medium confidence). {3.3.4, 3.3.5, 3.4.2}

Risks of water scarcity are projected to be greater at 2°C than at 1.5°C of global warming in some regions (medium confidence). Depending on future socio-economic conditions, limiting global warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C, may reduce the proportion of the world population exposed to a climate change-induced increase in water stress by up to 50%, although there is considerable variability between regions (medium confidence). Regions with particularly large benefits could include the Mediterranean and the Caribbean (medium confidence). Socio-economic drivers, however, are expected to have a greater influence on these risks than the changes in climate (medium confidence). {3.3.5, 3.4.2, Box 3.5}

Land Use, Food Security and Food Production Systems

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C, compared with 2°C, is projected to result in smaller net reductions in yields of maize, rice, wheat, and potentially other cereal crops, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central and South America; and in the CO₂-dependent nutritional quality of rice and wheat (high confidence). A loss of 7–10% of rangeland livestock globally is projected for approximately 2°C of warming, with considerable economic consequences for many communities and regions (medium confidence). {3.4.6, 3.6, Box 3.1, Cross-Chapter Box 6 in this chapter}

Reductions in projected food availability are larger at 2°C than at 1.5°C of global warming in the Sahel, southern Africa, the Mediterranean, central Europe and the Amazon (medium confidence). This suggests a transition from medium to high risk of regionally differentiated impacts on food security between 1.5°C and 2°C (medium confidence). Future economic and trade environments and their response to changing food availability (medium confidence) are important potential adaptation options for reducing hunger risk in low- and middle-income countries. {Cross-Chapter Box 6 in this chapter}

Fisheries and aquaculture are important to global food security but are already facing increasing risks from ocean warming and acidification (medium confidence). These risks are projected to increase at 1.5°C of global warming and impact key organisms such as fin fish and bivalves (e.g., oysters), especially at low latitudes (medium confidence). Small-scale fisheries in tropical regions, which are very dependent on habitat provided by coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs, mangroves, seagrass and kelp forests, are expected to face growing risks at 1.5°C of warming because of loss of habitat (medium confidence). Risks of impacts and decreasing food security are projected to become greater as global warming reaches beyond 1.5°C and both ocean warming and acidification increase, with substantial losses likely for coastal livelihoods and industries (e.g., fisheries and aquaculture) (medium to high confidence). {3.4.4, 3.4.5, 3.4.6, Box 3.1, Box 3.4, Box 3.5, Cross-Chapter Box 6 in this chapter}

Land use and land-use change emerge as critical features of virtually all mitigation pathways that seek to limit global warming to 1.5°C (high confidence). Most least-cost mitigation pathways to limit peak or end-of-century warming to 1.5°C make use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR), predominantly employing significant levels of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and/or afforestation and reforestation (AR) in their portfolio of mitigation measures (high confidence). {Cross-Chapter Box 7 in this chapter}

Large-scale deployment of BECCS and/or AR would have a far-reaching land and water footprint (high confidence). Whether this footprint would result in adverse impacts, for example on biodiversity or food production, depends on the existence and effectiveness of measures to conserve land carbon stocks, measures to limit agricultural expansion in order to protect natural ecosystems, and the potential to increase agricultural productivity (medium agreement). In addition, BECCS and/or AR would have substantial direct effects on regional climate through biophysical feedbacks, which are generally not included in Integrated Assessments Models (high confidence). {3.6.2, Cross-Chapter Boxes 7 and 8 in this chapter}

The impacts of large-scale CDR deployment could be greatly reduced if a wider portfolio of CDR options were deployed, if a holistic policy for sustainable land management were adopted, and if increased mitigation efforts were employed to strongly limit the demand for land, energy and material resources, including through lifestyle and dietary changes (medium confidence). In particular, reforestation could be associated with significant co-benefits if implemented in a manner than helps restore natural ecosystems (high confidence). {Cross-Chapter Box 7 in this chapter}

Human Health, Well-Being, Cities and Poverty

Any increase in global temperature (e.g., +0.5°C) is projected to affect human health, with primarily negative consequences (high confidence). Lower risks are projected at 1.5°C than at 2°C for heat-related morbidity and mortality (very high confidence), and for ozone-related mortality if emissions needed for ozone formation remain high (high confidence). Urban heat islands often amplify the impacts of heatwaves in cities (high confidence). Risks for some vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever are projected to increase with warming from 1.5°C to 2°C, including potential shifts in their geographic range (high confidence). Overall for vector- borne diseases, whether projections are positive or negative depends on the disease, region and extent of change (high confidence). Lower risks of undernutrition are projected at 1.5°C than at 2°C (medium confidence). Incorporating estimates of adaptation into projections reduces the magnitude of risks (high confidence). {3.4.7, 3.4.7.1, 3.4.8, 3.5.5.8}

Global warming of 2°C is expected to pose greater risks to urban areas than global warming of 1.5°C (medium confidence). The extent of risk depends on human vulnerability and the effectiveness of adaptation for regions (coastal and non-coastal), informal settlements and infrastructure sectors (such as energy, water and transport) (high confidence). {3.4.5, 3.4.8}

Poverty and disadvantage have increased with recent warming (about 1°C) and are expected to increase for many populations as average global temperatures increase from 1°C to 1.5°C and higher (medium confidence). Outmigration in agricultural- dependent communities is positively and statistically significantly associated with global temperature (medium confidence). Our understanding of the links of 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming to human migration are limited and represent an important knowledge gap. {3.4.10, 3.4.11, 5.2.2, Table 3.5}

Key Economic Sectors and Services

Risks to global aggregated economic growth due to climate change impacts are projected to be lower at 1.5°C than at 2°C by the end of this century (medium confidence). {3.5.2, 3.5.3} The largest reductions in economic growth at 2°C compared to 1.5°C of warming are projected for low- and middle-income countries and regions (the African continent, Southeast Asia, India, Brazil and Mexico) (low to medium confidence). Countries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 1.5°C to 2°C (medium confidence). {3.5} Global warming has already affected tourism, with increased risks projected under 1.5°C of warming in specific geographic regions and for seasonal tourism including sun, beach and snow sports destinations (very high confidence). Risks will be lower for tourism markets that are less climate sensitive, such as gaming and large hotel-based activities (high confidence). Risks for coastal tourism, particularly in subtropical and tropical regions, will increase with temperature-related degradation (e.g., heat extremes, storms) or loss of beach and coral reef assets (high confidence). {3.3.6, 3.4.4.12, 3.4.9.1, Box 3.4}

Small Islands, and Coastal and Low-lying areas

Small islands are projected to experience multiple inter- related risks at 1.5°C of global warming that will increase with warming of 2°C and higher levels (high confidence). Climate hazards at 1.5°C are projected to be lower compared to those at 2°C (high confidence). Long-term risks of coastal flooding and impacts on populations, infrastructures and assets (high confidence), freshwater stress (medium confidence), and risks across marine ecosystems (high confidence) and critical sectors (medium confidence) are projected to increase at 1.5°C compared to present-day levels and increase further at 2°C, limiting adaptation opportunities and increasing loss and damage (medium confidence). Migration in small islands (internally and internationally) occurs for multiple reasons and purposes, mostly for better livelihood opportunities (high confidence) and increasingly owing to sea level rise (medium confidence). {3.3.2.2, 3.3.6–9, 3.4.3.2, 3.4.4.2, 3.4.4.5, 3.4.4.12, 3.4.5.3, 3.4.7.1, 3.4.9.1, 3.5.4.9, Box 3.4, Box 3.5}

Impacts associated with sea level rise and changes to the salinity of coastal groundwater, increased flooding and damage to infrastructure, are projected to be critically important in vulnerable environments, such as small islands, low-lying coasts and deltas, at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C (high confidence). Localized subsidence and changes to river discharge can potentially exacerbate these effects. Adaptation is already happening (high confidence) and will remain important over multi-centennial time scales. {3.4.5.3, 3.4.5.4, 3.4.5.7, 5.4.5.4, Box
3.5}

Existing and restored natural coastal ecosystems may be effective in reducing the adverse impacts of rising sea levels and intensifying storms by protecting coastal and deltaic regions (medium confidence). Natural sedimentation rates are expected to be able to offset the effect of rising sea levels, given the slower rates of sea level rise associated with 1.5°C of warming (medium confidence). Other feedbacks, such as landward migration of wetlands and the adaptation of infrastructure, remain important (medium confidence). {3.4.4.12, 3.4.5.4, 3.4.5.7}

Increased Reasons for Concern

There are multiple lines of evidence that since AR5 the assessed levels of risk increased for four of the five Reasons for Concern (RFCs) for global warming levels of up to 2°C (high confidence). The risk transitions by degrees of global warming are now: from high to very high between 1.5°C and 2°C for RFC1 (Unique and threatened systems) (high confidence); from moderate to high risk between 1°C and 1.5°C for RFC2 (Extreme weather events) (medium confidence); from moderate to high risk between 1.5°C and 2°C for RFC3 (Distribution of impacts) (high confidence); from moderate to high risk between 1.5°C and 2.5°C for RFC4 (Global aggregate impacts) (medium confidence); and from moderate to high risk between 1°C and 2.5°C for RFC5 (Large-scale singular events) (medium confidence). {3.5.2}

1. The category ‘Unique and threatened systems’ (RFC1) display a transition from high to very high risk which is now located between 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming as opposed to at 2.6°C of global warming in AR5, owing to new and multiple lines of evidence for changing risks for coral reefs, the Arctic and biodiversity in general (high confidence). {3.5.2.1}
2. In ‘Extreme weather events’ (RFC2), the transition from moderate to high risk is now located between 1.0°C and 1.5°C of global warming, which is very similar to the AR5 assessment but is projected with greater confidence (medium confidence). The impact literature contains little information about the potential for human society to adapt to extreme weather events, and hence it has not been possible to locate the transition from ‘high’ to ‘very high’ risk within the context of assessing impacts at 1.5°C versus 2°C of global warming. There is thus low confidence in the level at which global warming could lead to very high risks associated with extreme weather events in the context of this report. {3.5}
3. With respect to the ‘Distribution of impacts’ (RFC3) a transition from moderate to high risk is now located between 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming, compared with between 1.6°C and 2.6°C global warming in AR5, owing to new evidence about regionally differentiated risks to food security, water resources, drought, heat exposure and coastal submergence (high confidence). {3.5}
4. In ‘global aggregate impacts’ (RFC4) a transition from moderate to high levels of risk is now located between 1.5°C and 2.5°C of global warming, as opposed to at 3.6°C of warming in AR5, owing to new evidence about global aggregate economic impacts and risks to Earth’s biodiversity (medium confidence). {3.5}
5. Finally, ‘large-scale singular events’ (RFC5), moderate risk is now located at 1°C of global warming and high risk is located at 2.5°C of global warming, as opposed to at 1.6°C (moderate risk) and around 4°C (high risk) in AR5, because of new observations and models of the West Antarctic ice sheet (medium confidence). {3.3.9, 3.5.2, 3.6.3}